By Paul Litely –
See Paullitely.com for more proof and details. –
It begins with the simplifying assumption that all forcing comes from Greenhouse Gas CO2 that cannot change state into liquid or ice at the Earth’s surface or in the atmosphere. CO2
“Dry Ice” results when CO2 changes state into an ice without becoming a liquid first, and that occurs at MINUS 109 DEFREES at one atmosphere of pressure. This temperature/pressure combination does not occur naturally on Earth. The vast amount of energy absorbed or released when CO2 changes state from “Dry Ice” is used for convenient and effective refrigeration to Minus 109 degrees. Dry ice is made by compressing CO2 to extreme pressures while pulling the resulting heat out of it. It turns solid. This cannot happen anywhere in the Earth’s atmosphere.
Now, consider that CO2 remains a gas over the entire temperature range where Water has TWO naturally occurring state changes in the atmosphere – water to water vapor and water to Ice. Both of these state changes occur in normal atmospheric temperature and pressure ranges, and are acknowledged by meteorologists to be dominant forces in the Earth’s weather.
Water Ice has temperature inertia, requiring vast quantum amounts of energy, to melt it. Liquid Water is the result of melting. Water itself can absorb vast amounts of energy as liquid water until it vaporizes. Water also has temperature inertia when it is heated until it vaporizes, requiring another vast quantum of energy when it changes state to water vapor.
In reverse, Water vapor Releases that vast quantum of energy when it condenses, as it does to make clouds and rain. Liquid water Releases vast quantum of energy when it freezes. Both of these state changes occur in naturally occurring temperature and pressure ranges constantly worldwide.
CO2 only has its gaseous absorption and radiation capacity to contribute, and at its 0,4% concentration in the atmosphere, CO2 cannot possibly drive water through its states, or even appreciably heat or cool the vastly larger concentration of Oxygen, Nitrogen, Water, and Water vapor, and Water ice in the dynamic weather atmosphere of earth, where humidity often approaches 100%.
Taking the state changes of liquid water and ice and Water vapor out of the thermal energy exchange formulas in Earth’s atmosphere is to take the vastly dominant components of atmospheric heat energy transfer out. If you do that, then modeling atmospheric temperatures using just CO2 in its constant gaseous state is simple but so insignificant as to be meaningless. Weather modeling is based on understanding energy transfers, and it focuses on water, clouds, evaporation and freezing water ice. Yet, the popular IPCC based Anthropogenic CO2 driven model takes no account of water state changes, and claims that the 10% of CO2 contributed by humans can control it all. The basic assumption that water in all its states. Changing states, dealing in astronomical numbers of energy can be left out of ANY Earth Climate model is absurd.
PUT IT IN THE MODEL !